ARCI Detection Performance Bounds

This report describes the performance prediction models for the passive narrowband (PNB) and passive broadband (PBB) automated detection (AD) modes of ARCI and APB 1. Ideal lower bounds on detection performance are formally derived for known target bearings and frequencies. These results are used later in the report to bound the range of detection degradation for estimated target tracks. The more realistic track-before-detect problem is addressed by developing expressions for the track containment probabilities. These probabilities measure the degree of similarity between actual and estimated tracks based on the root-mean-squared (RMS) track error bounds. The track probabilities are initially assumed fixed over a given observation interval. This results in a simplified closed-form expression for the detection probability based on the DeMoivre-Laplace approximation to a binomial distribution. Models are extended to address more realistic tracking problems where comparisons between model results and simulation are discussed. An intuitive geometrical interpretation of track-before-detect detection loss is examined in the context of minimum detectable level (MDL). Two detection fusion problems are also examined for the pairwise association of narrowband (PNB-PNB) and broadband (PBB-PBB) target components. Detection performance bounds are developed and a graphical interpretation of potential detection losses is discussed.